One third of plant and animal species gone in 50 years, To accurately predict biodiversity loss due to climate change, it is important to know which aspects of climate change are causing extinction and which mechanisms allow species to survive.
A new study by researchers from Arizona State University presents detailed estimates of the global loss of climate change in 2070. One third of plant and animal species gone in 50 years.
By combining information about the recent disappearance of climate change, species movement rates and different projections for future climate, they estimate that every third plant and animal species could become extinct.
The results are based on data from hundreds of plant and animal species throughout the world.
This study is probably the first to assess the pattern of large-scale extinction changes, including data on recent climate extinctions and species migration rates.
In particular, they examine local extinctions that have occurred based on several studies of plants and animals from time to time.
Román-Palacios and Wien analyzed data from 538 species and 581 locations worldwide. They focus on plant and animal species that are tested from time to time in the same location at least 10 years apart. They produce climate data from the earliest surveys in each location and newer surveys. One third of plant and animal species gone in 50 years.
They found that 44% of 538 species had disappeared in one or more places.
“By analyzing changes in 19 climate variables in each location, we can determine which variables lead to local extinction and how strongly these changes can affect populations without disappearing.
The researchers say: We also think about how fast populations can move to avoid rising temperatures. If we collect all of this data for each species together, we can make detailed estimates of extinction rates for hundreds of plant and animal species worldwide.
The study identifies maximum annual temperatures, the hottest daily highs in summer, as the key variable that best explains whether the population will disappear. One third of plant and animal species gone in 50 years.
Surprisingly, the researchers found that the average annual temperature showed fewer changes in the area, even though the average temperature was often used as a proxy for all climate changes.
This means that using average annual temperature changes to predict the loss of climate change can be positively misleading, researchers say.
Previous studies focused on spreading or migrating to cooler habitats to prevent species from warming up. However, the authors of this study found that most species cannot spread enough to escape because of their previous speed of movement.
Instead, they found that many species can tolerate an increase in maximum temperature, but only to a certain point.
They found that about 50% of species became extinct locally when the maximum temperature rose by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius, and 95% when the temperature rose more than 2.9 degrees Celsius.
Estimates of species loss depend on how warm the climate is in the future. Researchers say: If we abide by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, we could lose less than two out of ten plants and animals on Earth by 2070.
However, if people cause more fever, we can lose more than a third or even half of all animal and plant species based on our results.